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Prediction for CME (2024-05-11T01:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-05-11T01:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/30719/-1
CME Note: Ear-shaped bright partial halo CME with a very complex shape brighter bulk and a fainter somewhat asymmetric full halo shock. The CME is associated with the X5.8 flare and a significant eruption (massive dimming) and EUV wave seen in SDO 193. It is possible that this CME arrived at L1 2024-05-12T08:55Z, although it is more likely that the 2024-05-10T07:12Z CME is responsible for the 2024-05-12T08:55Z arrival.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-05-12T18:00Z (-6.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 70.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 8.0 - 8.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 
Radial velocity (km/s): 1250
Longitude (deg): 28W
Latitude (deg): 12S
Half-angular width (deg): 45

Notes: Asymmetrical halo CME with wider shock. Bulk ejecta appears to go to W of Earth-Sun line. Fitted using limited number of LASCO and STEREO frames. (Updated 111210Z mainly for slower analysed speed.)
Space weather advisor: Alister McHardy

Lead Time: 32.50 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2024-05-11T09:30Z

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